In a highly anticipated interview with Elon Musk, CEO of X, on Monday evening, former President Donald Trump notably avoided any mention of bitcoin (BTC) or cryptocurrency. The interview, which lasted over two hours, spanned a broad spectrum of topics, including illegal immigration, the economy, artificial intelligence, and climate change.
The conversation drew the attention of over 1 million listeners, though it faced a delay of more than 45 minutes, which Musk attributed to a “massive [distributed denial of service] attack on X.” Musk suggested that this attack demonstrated significant resistance to Trump’s message. However, a report from The Verge questioned this narrative, citing a source that claimed there was a “99 percent chance Musk was lying” about the attack. Meanwhile, an alert from cybersecurity watchdog Netblocks acknowledged international outages on X Spaces but did not confirm a DDOS attack.
The Betting Frenzy
On Polymarket, participants wagered heavily on the likelihood of “crypto” being mentioned, with a 65 percent chance assigned to the topic and over $600,000 at stake. Another market on the platform assessed the possibility of “bitcoin” being mentioned, peaking at 69% with approximately $330,000 in bets. Polymarket paid out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, if the prediction was correct, and nothing if it wasn’t.
Interestingly, Polymarket did not create markets for mentions of other digital assets such as ether, solana, or dogecoin. Bettors also staked over $250,000 on Trump mentioning “Tesla,” with odds peaking at 79%. However, Trump skillfully avoided the term by referring to Musk’s electric vehicle brand as “your cars.” Other terms that garnered bets included “MAGA,” “illegal immigrant,” and “tampon,” all of which Trump did end up mentioning.
One Polymarket user, known as ‘bama1234,’ walked away with over $1 million after correctly predicting most of the words Trump would or would not say during the interview. Their largest win came from betting against Trump mentioning “crypto,” netting them $336,918. However, they missed on a bet for Trump saying “MAGA,” which he did early in the interview, and “Trans,” which he ultimately did not mention.
Despite cryptocurrency emerging as a significant election issue, with Trump attending the recent BTC 2024 conference in Nashville to discuss crypto policy, it remains conspicuously absent in mainstream events like the first presidential debate in June.
